Tuesday, July 15, 2008

'08 GOP Senate Candidates Need to Pull a McCain Bounce Back - Luckily it's early

I was somewhat surprised to review today's latest Rasmussen Report email alert and notice that many of the GOP's best chances to hold on or pick up U.S. Senate seats "ain't" looking as good as they did earlier this year.

Minnesota - US Senate (7-14-08):
Al Franken 44%
Norm Coleman 42%

Minnesota - POTUS (7-14-08):
Barack H. Obama 52%
John S. McCain 34% (Say farewell to VP slot Gov. Pawlenty)

I still think that Senator Coleman pulls it out, but get the '00 W or '05 McD recount teams ready. I mean after all, this is the same state that elected Jessie "The Body" Ventura as Govenor, so I suppose there is a chance for Al "Obama will look conservative next to me" Franken. Maybe Ventura would have helped Sen. Coleman, we will never know.

Louisiana - US Senate (7-15-08):
Mary Landrieu 49%
John Kennedy 44%

Louisiana - POTUS (7-14-08):
John S. McCain 54%
Barack H. Obama 34%

Long live Huey P. Long! New Orleans has changed, but the attitude of doing anything the Dems need to do to win in Louisiana remains everpresent. In all fairness, Senator McCain has Louisiana in the bag, but I was hoping that GOP Nominee Senate Kennedy might pull the upset. With Governor Bobby Jindal in charge, Louisiana has brighter days ahead, but some traditions like the Landrieu family in the Bayou State die hard and for some reason, the dead seem to just really come out to vote for the Landrieus. So this is an uphill fight. If Senator Landrieu has this lead on Labor Day, she can hold on.

New Jersey - US Senate (7-9-08):
Frank Lautenberg 49%
Dick Zimmer 36%

Only a month earlier in June, Republican Dick Zimmer was just 1-point down (44%-45%), but it looks like those days may be gone. Every Presidential election cycle its the same game in New Jersey at the State level. Everyone thinks we have a chance in NJ in September, just to have our hearts broken in November as we watch the 5-7% undecided all break clearly for the Democrat, I am not going down that road this year. Good luck Frank and let's focus our resources elsewhere.

Luckily, other US Senate polls in NH, NM, VA and AK are now too old to be reliable, so we won't get into the misery that those polls showed us last month.

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